Cascade simulation across leverage tiers — at -X% from spot, what unwinds first?
IT'S ALPHA
Pure research & development. This page exists so we can test whether the on-chain data patterns are coherent enough to derive insight at the boundaries of what's observable. Methodology is disclosed, error bounds are surfaced where possible, but accuracy is not guaranteed and we may rewrite, replace, or remove anything you see here at any time. Do not trade or make decisions on this output without independent verification.
What is alpha: read the full alpha protocol →
Forward cascade ladder
Cumulative notional that liquidates if mark price moves X% adverse to side. Each row shows side split + leverage tier.
Computing cascade…
Caveats
- We see only non-private positions on chain. Privacy-mode positions are hidden — the cascade is a lower bound.
- Liquidation is computed using the exchange's reported liq_price per position — we don't recompute, we just count which liq prices the band touches.
- Cross-margin reflexivity (one liquidation freeing margin to extend another) is not modelled in v0.1. v0.2 will add that loop.
- Don't trade on this output without independent verification.
Coming in v0.2
- Heatmap visualisation (price × side, finer 0.5% grid)
- Projected funding-rate spike from the unwind
- Cross-margin reflexivity loop (one liq frees margin → extends another)
- Per-symbol drilldown (which symbol wipes first)
- Telegram alert when ≥$10M would liquidate at -2% (E1 catalog wiring)